With the status of the critical Strait of Hormuz remaining up in the air, the rising cost of oil and, by extension, diesel fuel continues to be the big story in not only freight transportation but the world economy as the geopolitical drama plays out.
Rising volumes combined with tight capacity are having the unavoidable result of increasing rates across freight transportation. This is leading more shippers to explore intermodal as a less expensive alternative, locking in rates that are expected to rise later in the year.
Here’s an overview of some of the important news events that are shaping the industry during this volatile time.
Truckload Freight Volumes, Rates Rise: DAT
Rising truckload freight volumes, along with surging diesel prices, pushed up the DAT Truckload Volume Index (TVI) for both contract and spot rates in March to the highest level in two years, DAT Freight & Analytics reported.
The TVI for dry van freight was up 12% sequentially from February, DAT reported, while reefer was up 7% and flatbed up 18%. The national average for truckload spot rates for dry van rose 4.5%, or 11 cents, to $2.52 per mile in March, compared to the prior month; for reefer, the upward change was 3.1%, or 9 cents, to $2.97, and for flatbed, it was up 13.6%, or 37 cents, to $3.09.
The national average diesel fuel surcharge rose sharply across all equipment types in March, putting pressure on linehaul margins even as total rates moved higher. The average van fuel surcharge increased from 41 cents to 61 cents per mile last month, the highest level since late 2022. Reefer surcharges were up 22 cents to 67 cents per mile, while flatbed surcharges jumped 24 cents to 73 cents per mile.
“For context, monthly average van fuel surcharges hovered around 40 cents per mile through most of 2025,” said Ken Adamo, DAT’s chief of analytics. “The March figure is roughly 50% higher than that baseline.”
Separately, the Cass Freight Index, which measures volumes across truckload and less-than-truckload (LTL), was down in March versus 2025 by 4.5%, but up sequentially from February by 3%, beating seasonal expectations of a 1% gain. The monthly increase spurred “cautious optimism” about a freight recovery in the back half of the year.
Capacity Crunch Driving Intermodal Growth: Uber Freight
With truckload capacity tightening due to stricter federal regulation on CDL as well as the time lag of new Class 8 equipment hitting the market, shippers are looking to lock in lower intermodal rates before they too start rising later on in 2026 based on growing volume.
Higher and higher diesel rates due to the war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have also dampened capacity, Uber Freight reported, as more carriers exit or file bankruptcies.
Uber Freight also reported that in general, consumer-oriented sectors like CPG and retail are driving volume growth, while industrial and manufacturing remain stagnant, although a rising Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) signals a potential recovery there.
Supreme Court to Decide on Carrier Hiring Liability for Freight Brokers
A case before the U.S. Supreme Court could decide whether federal law shields freight brokers from being legally liable for accident damage claims involving carriers they hire.
In Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, et al., the court will decide if major broker C.H. Robinson is liable for an accident in which a Caribe truck collided with a parked Mack truck in Illinois in 2017, severely injuring the driver of that truck. Tort law in various states has allowed injured parties to sue brokers on the basis of alleged negligent hiring of the carrier, but courts have ruled differently on the issue of liability.
C.H. Robinson said in a news release that “for nearly a century, federal law has comprehensively regulated interstate trucking, and Congress has expressly preempted states from using their tort laws to impose new duties on freight brokers and shippers.” The Supreme Court will decide if brokers will be shielded under the Federal Aviation Administration Authorization Act or subject to state jurisdiction in accident liability cases.
FMCSA: Fewer Carrier Exits
In Q1 2026, more motor carriers entered the market than exited it, the first time there was a net gain since Q2 of last year and Q3 2022 before that, according to an analysis of Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration data by Trucking Dive.
From a peak of 13,841 carrier additions in March 2022, creating a net gain of 6,047 carriers, FMCSA data showed the trucking industry dipped to a low of 5,117 additions and a net loss of 2,102 carriers in December 2024, as the COVID-era boom petered out.
While the trend is leading to some hope of a reversal of the downward trend in the trucking industry, that optimism is counterbalanced by a declining number of drivers on carrier payrolls.
The impact of recent price shocks in diesel fuel since the Iran war began on February 28 will not show up in carrier count data until May at the earliest, if at all, said Avery Vise, FTR Transportation Intelligence VP of Trucking, on a recent podcast.
Wicker Park Provides Expert Mode Optimization
Truckload costs are climbing as geopolitical instability in the Strait of Hormuz drives oil and diesel prices higher, pushing up both contract and spot rates across van, reefer, and flatbed. Truckload volume has reached a two‑year high, while fuel surcharges have spiked roughly 50% above recent norms, squeezing margins and contributing to carrier exits.
At the same time, modest volume gains and a rising PMI point to a potential freight recovery later in the year. Also, shippers are turning to intermodal to lock in lower rates before further increases hit an already capacity constrained market.
Wicker Park Logistics, a woman-owned logistics company and WBENC Certified Business, gives shippers expert mode optimization, access to a rigorously vetted carrier network, proactive management of market‑driven pricing, and real‑time insight into capacity and rate shifts. Our flexible, scalable transportation solutions help protect service levels and budgets even as volatility, uncertainty, and carrier churn reshape the freight landscape. Reach out today for a quick quote.
