In a single year, we’ve gone from “navigating through the fog” in 2025 to “forged in disruption” in 2026, according to the annual State of Logistics Report from the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).
Meanwhile, ArcBest and its subsidiary ABF Freight have bumped up their GRI yet again by 5.9%, less than a year after an identical bump, as carriers continue to flex their pricing power as capacity tightens. 3PLs are also seeing healthy gains in revenue, per Armstrong & Associates, hopefully signally an end to the lingering freight recession.
Volatility Is the Watchword in Supply Chain: CSCMP Report
The central message of the 2026 CSCMP State of Logistics Report is clear: disruption is no longer a temporary challenge to navigate but the permanent operating environment of modern supply chains.
Tariffs, geopolitical choke points, supply chain fragmentation, and rapidly changing trade patterns are now structural realities rather than short-term disruptions. U.S. logistics spending fell 1% year over year, but broad industry averages increasingly mask dramatic differences between individual trade lanes and transportation corridors. China+1 sourcing and friend-shoring strategies have become permanent features of global supply networks.
At the same time, 2025 marked a turning point for artificial intelligence in logistics. AI moved from experimentation to measurable commercial results, the report noted. Companies including Maersk, Penske, Walmart, FedEx, and Aurora demonstrated meaningful gains in pricing, planning, visibility, automation, and autonomous operations. The lesson, according to CSCMP, is not to implement AI everywhere at once, but to identify high-value workflows, redesign processes around the technology, prove the return on investment, and scale.
Across transportation modes, old assumptions no longer apply, CSCMP found. Parcel networks are restructuring, 3PLs are evolving from freight managers into strategic orchestrators, trucking remains an uneven recovery, and sustainability initiatives increasingly require a clear business case. The companies that will succeed, the report states, are not waiting for stability to return. They are redesigning their supply chains to operate effectively in an environment that assumes volatility as a baseline assumption.
Shippers Looking at Higher LTL Rates
Both ArcBest and subsidiary ABF Freight announced a 5.9% general rate increase (GRI) as of June 22, with some variance based on lanes and shipments, reflecting growth in weight per shipment and daily tonnage. This follows a 5.9% GRI increase from FedEx Freight in January.
The bigger story is not simply rates increasing. LTL carriers have gained greater pricing power following the 2023 collapse of Yellow, which permanently removed a significant amount of national LTL capacity. Larger carriers absorbed much of that freight and have maintained more disciplined pricing strategies rather than aggressively discounting to fill terminals.
For shippers, this means LTL cost reductions or heavy discounting may be over. Carriers are increasingly focused on yield management, density, and freight quality, and GRIs are becoming a more frequent tool rather than a once-a-year event.
3PLs See Revenue Gains
Both net revenue and gross revenue came in at a 5% gain or better for the third-party logistics sector in 2025, according to a report from Armstrong & Associates. This compares to gains of 1.8% and 2.8%, respectively, in 2024.
The consultancy said in its report that this type of growth path signals that the freight recession that began at the end of 2022 is coming to a close, with growth predicted through 2027.
Growth was strongest in international transportation management, with gross revenue up 7.7% to $85.9 billion. This was followed by domestic transportation management (gross revenue of $128.3 billion, up 4.5%); value-added warehousing and distribution (gross revenue of $72.7 billion, up 4.4%); and dedicated contract carriage (gross revenue of $32 billion, up 1.6%).
“If shippers can’t find trucks, they turn to freight brokers, and if there is excess capacity, then shippers can find carriers on their own, leaving less of a need for brokers,” Evan Armstrong, president of Armstrong & Associates, told Logistics Management. “When you get into tight capacity situations like we are in now, it benefits brokers and leads to decent growth. Following the Montgomery ruling and what happened in terms of carrier vetting and hiring carriers, we expect pretty good growth in freight brokerage throughout this year.”
Spot Truckload Rates Rise in May: DAT
Spot rates for truckload freight were up in May across all three equipment types (dry van, refrigerated, flatbed), despite lower freight volumes, according to DAT Freight & Analytics, due more to tighter capacity than increased demand, the company said.
DAT’s Truckload Volume Index (TVI) for dry van was down 9% from April, while falling 10% for reefer and 14% for flatbed. Spot van rates increased 22 cents per mile to $2.89, while reefer spot rates were up 24 cents to $3.35 per mile, and flatbed spot rates rose 19 cents to $3.65 per mile.
Factors negatively impacting spot truckload capacity in May included carriers removing drivers from circulation to circumvent CVSA’s annual roadcheck inspection blitz, ongoing CDL attrition from immigration enforcement, and the Memorial Day weekend.
Amazon Expands LTL Freight Service
Amazon, not content with shaking up the retail and e-commerce and web services industries, has now set its sights on the LTL market by expanding the service beyond its selling partners to the general shipping public.
Shippers can utilize Amazon’s expanded LTL to ship one to six pallets weighing between 150 and 15,000 pounds. It is supported by Amazon’s logistics network of 80,000+ trailers, 24,000 intermodal containers, and terminals across major U.S. metros.
While it doesn’t operate at nearly the scale of providers with hundreds of terminals, Amazon is hoping to close the gap through technology and integration with its supply chain services. The company promises enhanced security, including sensors inside its trailers, electronic proof of delivery, and pallet-level tracking, as well as a combined LTL and TL drop-trailer pool program to improve dock door utilization and turnover.
DOT Launches Supply Chain Initiative
The U.S. Department of Transportation announced plans to launch the American Supply Chain Sovereignty Initiative, a program designed to accelerate cargo movement, reduce logistics costs, and strengthen the nation’s freight and transportation workforce, according to a June 12 announcement.
A key component of the initiative is a supply chain visibility dashboard that will connect major freight stakeholders including ocean carriers, trucking companies, railroads, retailers, and critical logistics gateways like the Port of Los Angeles. The aim is to provide greater transparency into cargo flows and supply chain performance.
The new initiative builds on the Freight Logistics Optimization Works (FLOW) program, launched in 2022 to improve supply chain visibility through voluntary data sharing among shippers, carriers, ports, terminals, and retailers. While FLOW focused on creating a common view of freight movement and bottlenecks, the supply chain sovereignty initiative expands that concept by integrating more transportation stakeholders. The aim is to increase real-time visibility using data insights to accelerate cargo processing, reduce costs, and improve supply chain resilience across the national freight network.
In an Unstable Market, Seek a Strong Logistics Partner
As the first half of 2026 demonstrates, supply chains remain defined by uncertainty, changing market conditions, and the need for constant adaptation. The CSCMP report argues that volatility is no longer a temporary disruption but a permanent operating reality, and recent developments across transportation markets reinforce that conclusion.
LTL carriers continue to push rate increases, truckload capacity is tightening in certain segments, 3PLs are benefiting from renewed demand, and Amazon is expanding its logistics footprint, and policymakers are investing in greater supply chain visibility. This all points to an industry that is evolving rather than stabilizing. For shippers, success will depend on flexibility, strong logistics partnerships, and the ability to respond quickly to shifting market conditions.
Wicker Park Logistics helps shippers navigate volatile freight markets through flexible capacity, proactive communication, and experienced transportation management. By combining a deep carrier network with hands-on execution, Wicker Park helps shippers secure reliable truckload and LTL capacity, adapt to volatility, and control transportation costs. We keep your freight moving even when disruptions, rate pressures, and capacity constraints create supply chain uncertainty. Get in touch with us today for a quick quote.
