The freight market is sending mixed signals. For starters, truckload rates are rising as the federal government is making it harder for people to legally drive commercial vehicles. New labor data shows that more trucking jobs were lost than previously thought, while warehouse jobs remained more stable. Importers are facing record shortfalls in customs bonds because of higher tariffs. But those same tariffs are helping reduce the federal deficit.
All of these changes suggest that the supply chain is being shaped less by sudden increases in demand and more by structural limitations. Continue reading as we break it all down in this edition of our news roundup.
Trucking Rates Strengthen as Capacity Exits
U.S. trucking executives are starting to feel cautiously hopeful that the long-term drop in freight rates may be coming to an end. Spot dry van rates on DAT’s top 50 U.S. lanes are around $2.30 per mile, excluding fuel. That is an increase of 18% to 20% from last year. And it is important to note that those gains held even after the worst winter storms ended.
Adam Miller, CEO of Knight-Swift Transportation, said that the market was balanced between carriers and shippers. This is very different from early 2025, when similar weather events didn’t change rates. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 3.2% year over year in January, suggesting contract prices are also rising.
DOT Final Rule Tightens Non-Domiciled CDL Standards
The Department of Transportation issued new rules that limit how states can issue commercial driver’s licenses and learner’s permits to people who don’t live in the state. Only people with H-2A, H-2B, or E-2 visas can now apply. And they must show an unexpired foreign passport and an approved Form I-94. Employment authorization documents will no longer qualify.
The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration said that weak documentation standards allowed drivers with unverifiable histories to operate on U.S. roads, posing a safety concern. For instance, there were 17 crashes and 30 deaths in 2025 involving drivers whose credentials did not meet the new rule.
BLS Revision Reveals Deeper Trucking Job Losses
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ yearly employment revision lowered previous estimates of trucking jobs in 2025. The number of truck transportation jobs in January 2025 was changed from 1,532,000 to 1,493,100. By December, there were 1,466,900 jobs, 46,400 fewer than previously reported.
The industry lost 125,200 jobs between January 2023, when there were 1,587,800 jobs, and January 2026, when there were 1,462,600 jobs. The opposite was true for warehouse jobs. In December 2025, the number of jobs rose to 1,833,100, but the sector still had more than 50,000 fewer jobs than in February. Overall, there were 104,000 fewer jobs in transportation and warehousing this year than last.
Tariffs Create Record Customs Bond Shortfalls for Importers
President Trump’s tariff policies are bringing in record amounts of money for the federal government, but they are also making it hard for importers to make ends meet. In fiscal year 2025, U.S. Customs and Border Protection found 27,479 customs bond shortfalls totaling almost $3.6 billion. For context, that is more than twice as much as in 2019.
Bond requirements have risen sharply because tariff collections hit $30 billion in January and $124 billion so far this year, which is 304% more than the same period last year. Now, some bond limits go from a minimum of $50,000 to a maximum of $450 million.
Rising Tariffs Narrow Federal Deficit Despite Tax Cuts
Tariff money is making a big difference in how the federal government spends its money. In the first four months of fiscal 2026, the U.S. budget deficit dropped 17% to $697 billion, down from $840 billion a year earlier. After making changes to the calendar, the drop is now 21%.
Receipts rose by 12%, but federal spending rose by only 2%. The Congressional Budget Office says that if current tariffs remain in place, they could reduce the deficit by $3 trillion over the next 10 years. However, it is important to note that the Supreme Court is considering the legality of several tariffs, and the decision will affect both trade and the economy.
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