The North American freight market is showing a notable split: cross-border trade is accelerating even as broader domestic freight demand remains soft. June data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) showed truck freight between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico was up 23% year over year, while July data from DAT, Cass, and ACT Research pointed to rising truckload rates amid declining volumes.
Here’s more on the latest news in freight transportation.
Cross-Border Truck Freight Jumps 23% in June
Truck freight between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico spiked 23% in June, outpacing total transborder freight, which increased 19.9% during that period, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). The growth in cross-border railroad freight, by comparison, was 11%.
Freight moving between the U.S. and Canada was up 17% from June 2025, while freight hauled between the U.S. and Mexico grew 22.2%. Laredo, Texas, was the top port this June, representing $35.6 billion in freight value, followed by Detroit at $13.7 billion.
According to BTS, truck freight with Mexico has been on a long-term upward trajectory as manufacturing shifts closer to the U.S. market, fueling the overall surge in cross-border freight. From the pandemic low of April 2020 through December 2025, the value of truck freight with Mexico rose from $20.8 billion to $51.5 billion, while Mexico’s truck trade value became roughly 50% higher than Canada’s. BTS points to nearshoring in Mexico as a likely factor.
Dry Van Truckload Rates Up 48% in July
Dry van and refrigerated truckload contract rates saw the largest monthly sequential increases in July, DAT Freight & Analytics reported, even as truckload volume decreased across all equipment types (dry van, refrigerated, flatbed).
Excluding fuel, the average contract linehaul rate rose 13 cents per mile (up 5.8%) for dry van freight and 9 cents per mile for reefer freight (up 3.6%). The fact that this took place even with declining volumes indicated “the growing influence of available capacity on pricing,” DAT reported.
While July typically sees a lull in freight volume due to seasonality, reefer volume saw the largest decrease in six years, DAT reported, while its 13% year-over-year drop was the largest among the three equipment types.
Dry van truckload spot rates, excluding fuel, were up 47% year over year in July to $2.41 per mile, according to ACT Research, based on data from DAT. “While the truckload market remains supply driven, recent months have seen spot demand ease from its highs and driver availability begin to improve, signaling a seasonal lull and moderating the pace of rate increases,” ACT said.
Tariff-Driven Volatility Impacting Routing Decisions
The constant shifting of US tariff policy over the past two years, and the uncertainty it creates, continues to impact all aspects of the supply chain including sourcing, assembly and routing decisions. This was one of the findings in CSCMP’s 2026 State of Logistics report.
“What’s changed is not simply the level of tariffs, but their frequency and unpredictability,” CSCMP noted in its report.
The reaction to tariffs has led to inventory front loading that causes freight capacity and pricing to shift dramatically. It has also led to a massive sourcing shift away from China to Southeast Asia and Mexico. “It’s not substitution at the margins; it’s a structural rebalancing of origin lanes that is changing the design logic of US distribution networks from the port inward,” CSCMP observed.
What it means:
- For shippers, networks built for the prior decade’s efficiency imperative require structural redesign, not incremental adjustment.
- For carriers, route, pricing, and fleet strategies calibrated to historical patterns carry material risk.
- For logistics service providers, clients are seeking partners that can navigate complexity in real time, not merely execute against predetermined plans.
Freight Demand Turnaround Still Not There: Cass
Freight volumes continued to weaken in July, with the Cass Freight Index shipments component for July falling 4.8% year over year and 2.2% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis. The decline reflects softer freight demand, higher fuel costs, and shrinking trucking capacity, while rail intermodal continues gaining share from truckload.
Despite lower volumes, freight spending remained elevated. The Cass expenditures index increased 9.1% year over year to 3.52, although it declined 2.2% month over month as shipment activity softened.
Truckload pricing moved in the opposite direction. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 2.3% month over month and 8.6% year over year to 152.9. The increase was stronger than normal seasonal patterns and suggests continued upward pressure on truckload rates. Overall, July points to a market where freight volumes remain soft while transportation costs and truckload pricing continue to rise.
“The supply-led rate recovery continues, and with interest rates rising and fuel prices remaining elevated, the demand outlook remains under pressure,” DAT reported. “Class 8 tractor sales are set to rise above replacement levels in the coming months, alleviating one constraint on the market. But real income growth has slowed to almost zero and savings rates are worryingly low.”
Major Carriers: Safety Scrutiny in Wake of Montgomery Favors Them
Executives from major trucking companies said in recent earnings calls that the impact of the Montgomery v. Caribe Transportation ruling by the Supreme Court falls more heavily on smaller carriers as vetting and safety scrutiny increase dramatically.
In the unanimous May decision, the high court ruled that freight brokers were no longer exempt from damage claims arising from accidents involving carriers they contract with on behalf of shippers.
“The Montgomery ruling could structurally change the economic incentives for a large share of the brokerage space that all too often have pursued the cheapest possible capacity with less regard for carrier safety and quality,” Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings CEO Adam Miller told investors, per Trucking Dive.
Miller and other executives said their safety ratings as tracked by FMCSA versus those of many smaller carriers give them a decided advantage in the wake of Montgomery.
Intermodal Freight Seeing Growth
Intermodal freight continues to benefit from increases in truckload rates. Both commodity freight and intermodal volume increased year over year and year to date during the second week in August, according to data from the Association of American Railroads (AAR).
For the week ending August 15, commodity freight as measured in carloads was up 1.9%, while intermodal volume (containers and trailers) rose 2.7%. Year to date, commodity freight rose 2.7%, while intermodal volume was up 3.8%.
“July extended a pattern that has persisted throughout much of 2026: growth in most rail carload categories and exceptional intermodal volumes,” AAR said in its August report.
Transportation Planning Increasingly Important
All of these news items point to a freight market that is becoming more complex. Cross-border truck freight is growing rapidly, particularly between the U.S. and Mexico, while domestic truckload volumes remain under pressure. Yet tighter capacity is pushing truckload rates higher, and growing intermodal volumes suggest some freight is shifting to rail as shippers look for alternatives.
The degree of disruption and shifting freight capacity caused by tariffs and geopolitical unrest is causing shippers to scramble and rethink their transportation strategy to avoid the negative scenario of freight left on their docks. The combination of deep network knowledge and capabilities required to mitigate these risks are something that 3PLs are managing every single day.
Bottom line: This growing complexity and uncertainty requires an expert hand to help shippers evaluate their options and optimize their transportation spend. Wicker Park Logistics can help you evaluate truckload, LTL, and intermodal options based on the lane, freight characteristics, capacity and service requirements, not just the lowest quoted rate. As cross-border volumes grow and the domestic freight market continues to rebalance, a logistics partner that can compare modes and manage shifting capacity helps you keep your freight moving efficiently. Get in touch with Wicker Park today for a quick quote.
